Welcome to The Racing Dispatch - Breeders' Cup Edition

What was Murtagh doing?

Well, after having spent seven hours at LAX awaiting a flight home, I had plenty of time to digest one of the craziest items of Breeders’ Cup Saturday: John Murtagh’s ride on Soldier of Fortune.

Red Rock Canyon was entered as a rabbit, pure and simple. If you weren’t sure, just check out his running lines from the past performances. The comments are obvious…

“Clear leader to 2 1/2 furlongs out as Ballydoyle pacesetter…”
“Led as pacesetter for ‘Duke’…” (this one appeared four races in a row)

All year, that has been Red Rock Canyon’s goal. He’s a decent horse, but he’s never won a race, and has been beaten more than 100 lengths in six starts this year (approximate as he was so far back in the Arc, the chart simply registers as “distanced”), all as a breakneck pacesetter.

Jockey Colm O’Donoghue did his job in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Here are the fractions for the race along with the inter-race fractions:

2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf
First quarter: 24.1
Second quarter: 47.0 (22.4)
Third quarter: 1:10.1 (23.1)
Fourth quarter: 1:33.4 (23.3)
Fifth quarter: 1:58.3 (24.4)
Sixth quarter: 2:23.2 (24.4)

The final time was a Breeders’ Cup Turf record, smashing the old record by a half-second, set by Chief Bearhart in the 1997 Turf.

Looking at the fourth and fifth quarters, compare them to other Cup races from this year. Goldikova won the Mile which finished with the following fractions and inter-race numbers:

2008 Breeders’ Cup Mile
First quarter: 23.0
Second quarter: 46.2 (23.2)
Third quarter: 1:10 (23.3)
Fourth quarter: 1:33.2 (23.2)

Forever Together’s Filly & Mare Turf win was incredibly different as Frankie Dettori attempted to slow the pace on Folk Opera in an effort similar to her last win at Woodbine.

2008 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
First quarter: 25.2
Second quarter: 50.0 (24.3)
Third quarter: 1:14.3 (24.3)
Fourth quarter: 1:38.0 (23.2)
Fifth quarter: 2:01.2 (23.2)

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf finished their miles in 1:34.2 and 1:35 respectively, so to see Red Rock Canyon going in an incredible 1:33.2, he clearly did what was planned.

So why was John Murtagh sitting so close to his intended target? I don’t know and I don’t understand. But this much is clear: The chances of 8-5 favorite Soldier of Fortune winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf were dramatically altered as a result of Murtagh’s decision to track his obvious pacesetter. PC

A glorious day

Well..it probably was for some. maybe not others. Pat Cummings won the lot amongst Dispatch handicappers with five winners (Zenyatta, Albertus Maximus, Goldikova, Midshipman, Conduit). Here are some of the winners from the week.

Ryan Moore, earlier in the week, rode Conduit to a rousing win in the Turf.

Conduit, yelling to the media as he made his way through the crowd on Wednesday morning.

Muhannak, winner of the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Marathon, earlier in the week.

Albertus Maximus was strong in the Dirt Mile.

Midshipman on Thursday morning, another winner for Bob Baffert

Midnight Lute, Baffert’s second winner, in a blur, with a lovely rail pole in the way

John Gosden, speaking to the media on Wednesday, had winners in Donativum and Raven’s Pass

Her Royal Highness Princess Haya bint Hussein of Jordan, left, with her husband, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Prime Minister and Vice President of the United Arab Emirates, Ruler of Dubai, from Dubai World Cup night 2008.

Goldikova three days before her dominating Mile victory

Pat’s perspective on the 25th Breeders’ Cup

Here are 25 thoughts from the 25th Breeders’ Cup:

1. Ventura is wonderful, but was absolutely the trendsetter that strong outside runs were a boost on the Pro-Ride.

2. How does Consequence go off at 3-1 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and the winner, Maram, is sent off at 11-1 after having slugged out a win against Consequence in the Miss Grillo.

3. Stardom Bound is a deserving champion but you have to think her running style might hurt at some point in the future.

4. When you hear a horse is going to retire, then shows up at the Breeders’ Cup and the trainer is practically standing by her side and helping to wash her, maybe she’s here for a reason. Sealy Hill would fit the bill.

5. Zenyatta rocked.

6. Zenyatta should never run against her own gender again. I don’t care when or where, but face the INCREDIBLY weak American handicap division and demolish them from stem to stern…they aren’t that good, and that will be exacerbated by a Curlin retirement.

7. Part 1 - Expect more Euros to come for the Dirt Marathon in 2009.

8. Just about anything can happen when they come down that hill on the turf course. It makes for one of the most exciting scenes in American horse racing.

9. I couldn’t be happier for Richard Migliore.

10. Two Step Salsa ran one of the best “on the board” finishes of the day after an amazing run on the rail in the Dirt Mile.

11. Well Armed wasn’t in the Classic for a reason, and it had nothing to do with Colonel John.

12. Dictionary.com definition: horse - large, solid-hoofed, herbivorous quadruped, Equus caballus, domesticated since prehistoric times, bred in a number of varieties, and used for carrying or pulling loads, for riding, and for racing (editorial…do not need Lasix to run well, see also, Goldikova, Donativum, Conduit.)

13. Midshipman was the only horse of the weekend to run on the Pro-Ride and win while racing on or immediately off the lead.

14. The interests of Sheikh Mohammed ran 1-3-4 in the Juvenile Turf. For the weekend, a combination of his collective interests racing as Godolphin, Darley, and HRH Princess Haya of Jordan had eight starts, three wins (Midshipman, Donativum, Raven’s Pass), two places (Cocoa Beach, Diabolical), one show (Music Note), one fourth (City Style), and one off the board finish (Folk Opera).

15. Midnight Lute deserves to be the Eclipse Award winner in the Sprint division. He essentially demolished anyone who could have been considered.

16. Fatal Bullet ran a huge race to stay on the pace.

17. The absolute best looking horse of the day, on the track, in any race, was Conduit. This colt was like a rocking-chair horse, bouncing around like a stone-cold champion.

18. Soldier of Fortune’s performance can be judged by Red Rock Canyon’s performance.

19. John Murtagh’s ride was the absolute worst ride I’ve ever witnessed in a major race. Put every other ride out of your mind, and put this atop the mantle of absolute stupidity. They must have been going crazy at PaddyPower, Will Hill, Ladbrokes and every shop in England and Ireland.

20. I hope Kieran Fallon cleans up his life, because Aidan O’Brien needs him. Otherwise, move up Jamie Heffernan to top stable rider.

21. Expect more Mike deKock horses at the Breeders’ Cup.

22. Anyone who picked Casino Drive for any reason should explain why. Kurt Hoover and Matt Carrothers picked him on the Breeders’ Cup feed and the DRF’s David Grening and Alan Shuback took him in their picks. I’m sure Kurt and Matt explained it on the feed, but I will be hard-pressed to understand anyone’s logic for using him.

23. What would the head-to-head wager have been to see Smooth Air finish in front of Duke of Marmalade? Aidan O’Brien and his recent failures at the Breeders’ Cup are surprising.

24. Part 2 - Expect more Euros to come for EVERYTHING in 2009. Full speed ahead.

25. Frankie Dettori’s ride in the Classic was as close to perfect as you can find. He knew he had to beat Curlin, he followed the horse he had to beat, he had enough horse, and he won.

25a. Curlin will be horse of the year.

Nick’s BC Notes following the 2008 Breeders’ Cup

Dispatch Handicapper Nick Tammaro provides some of his thoughts from a busy week in Arcadia. Here’s 25 notes on the 25th anniversary of the Breeders’ Cup.

1. Ventura is equally adept on synthetic and turf.

2. Chad Brown is a VERY good trainer…Jose Lezcano is a very good rider.

3. Forever Together’s off the pace run, giving the race dynamics, was extremely impressive.

4. There are no horses from their respective generations that are even in the same league as Stardom Bound and Zenyatta.

5. Chester House, at the bargain basement stud fee of $20,000, is a steal.

6. No jockey deserved a Breeders’ Cup win more than Richard Migliore.

7. No jockey deserves to never have a Breeders’ Cup mount again more than John Murtagh.

8. Anyone who doubts the significance of a horse making the third start of his form cycle and training well should reference Albertus Maximus.

9. After watching Goldikova crush males in the Mile, just how good is Zarkava?

10. Did I mention John Murtagh has had two terrible Breeders’ Cups in a row.

11. If Midshipman is sent to Dubai, then clearly the memo has made it to Darley/Godolphin headquarters. This is a serious race horse.

12. Part 1 - John Gosden is a very good trainer.

13. What is more impressive, Midnight Lute with one prep where he finished up the track, or Da Hoss winning off a two year layoff with one prep he did win?

14. How tough is the combination of Gomez/Baffert on a big day?

15. If you are going to send a rabbit for a three-turn turf race, tell the jockey on the rabbit to ride like one and tell the jockey of the horse being setup by the rabbit to not prompt the rabbit.

16. Who was more disappointing, Soldier of Fortune in 2008 or Dylan Thomas in 2007?

17. The colorful Conduit was impressive in the morning, and more so taking care of business in the afternoon.

18. Note to self…pay attention to horses emerging from the St. Leger.

19. If Bob McNair shows Sheikh Mohammed his receipt, can he get a price check on horses like Midshipman and Raven’s Pass. Those two are significantly more talented than Matt Schaub.

20. The easiest way for a seemingly “can’t miss” horse to lose is if he or she is being ridden by a nervous jockey.

21. Is there any wonder why Frankie Dettori the best rider in Europe?

22. Part 2 - John Gosden is a VERY good trainer.

23. Anyone who hasn’t been to Santa Anita must book their tickets for December 26th now.

24. There is nothing to be afraid of with the Pro-Ride.

25. Zenyatta is the Horse of the Year.

Saturday’s Dispatch Selections

Race 1 - Breeders’ Cup Marathon
Pat Cummings: 8 - Cedar Mountain
Mersad Metanovic: 3 - Delightful Kiss
Nick Tammaro: 3 - Delightful Kiss
Michael Chamberlain: 4 - Sixties Icon

Race 2 - Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Pat Cummings: 6 - Storm Treasure
Mersad Metanovic: 6 - Storm Treasure
Nick Tammaro: 12 - One Union
Michael Chamberlain: 1 - Hero’s Reward

Race 3 - Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Pat Cummings: 7 - Albertus Maximus
Mersad Metanovic: 7 Albertus Maximus
Nick Tammaro: 8 - Well Armed
Michael Chamberlain: 8 - Well Armed

Race 4 - Breeders’ Cup Mile
Pat Cummings: 4 - Goldikova
Mersad Metanovic: 11 Whatsthescript
Nick Tammaro: 3 - Precious Kitten
Michael Chamberlain: 10 - Thorn Song

Race 5 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Pat Cummings: 11 - Midshipman
Mersad Metanovic: 8 - Street Hero
Nick Tammaro: 11 - Midshipman
Michael Chamberlain: 8 - Street Hero

Race 6 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Pat Cummings: 8 - Paddy The Pro
Mersad Metanovic: 8 - Paddy The Pro
Nick Tammaro: 11 - Bittel Road
Michael Chamberlain: 11 - Bittel Road

Race 7 - Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Pat Cummings: 2 - Street Boss
Mersad Metanovic: 2 - Street Boss
Nick Tammaro: 2 - Street Boss
Michael Chamberlain: 1 - Cost of Freedom

Race 8 - Breeders’ Cup Turf
Pat Cummings: 9 - Conduit
Mersad Metanovic: 11 - Eagle Mountain
Nick Tammaro: 1 - Better Talk Now
Michael Chamberlain: 2 - Red Rocks

Race 9 - Breeders’ Cup Classic
Pat Cummings: 9 - Curlin
Mersad Metanovic: 12 - Champs Elysees
Nick Tammaro: 9 - Curlin
Michael Chamberlain: 9 - Curlin

What would Nick do with $50 - Day 2

Well, after day one, Nick Tammaro is down $196 after wagering $244. Here’s a look at day two of the 25th Breeders’ Cup.

Race 1 - Breeders’ Cup Dirt Marathon
$1 Trifecta
3,8 with 3,8 with ALL
3,8 with ALL with 3,8
ALL with 3,8 with 3,8
$4 Exacta Box
3,8
___________________________________________________
Race 2 - Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
$1 Exacta
12 with ALL
$1 Exacta
ALL with 12
$2 Exacta
12 with 2,3,6,7,10,13
$2 Exacta
2,3,6,7,10,13 with 12
___________________________________________________
Race 3 - Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
$1 Trifecta
7,8 with 7,8,9 with ALL
$5 Exacta Box
7,8
___________________________________________________
Race 4 - Breeders’ Cup Mile
$50 Win
3
___________________________________________________
Race 5 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
$20 Double
11 with 11
$15 Double
11 with 7,8
___________________________________________________
Race 6 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
$1 Trifecta
11 with 5,7,8 with ALL
$10 Win Place
11
___________________________________________________
Race 7 - Breeders’ Cup Sprint
$30 Exacta
2 with 7
$20 Exacta
2 with 8
___________________________________________________
Race 8 - Breeders’ Cup Turf
$1 Trifecta
1,4,5,8 with 1,4,5,8 with 1,4,5,8,9,10
___________________________________________________
Race 9 - Breeders’ Cup Classic
$30 Exacta
9 with 12
$2 Trifecta
9 with ALL with 12

Good luck!

Zenyatta’s day

She is a champion. As Trevor Denman would say, “the more they asked, the more she gave.” There was no contest. The following pictures are courtesy of Jeff Mallard - thanks, Jeff.

Zenyatta in the paddock

ONLINE HORSE BETTING

Zenyatta making her move

Zenyatta the champion

ONLINE HORSE BETTING

Changes on Friday card

Here are the changes for the Friday Breeders’ Cup card from the Oak Tree website

What would Nick do with $50 in each BC race?

Nick Tammaro had an incredibly successful Breeders’ Cup in 2007 and turned a profit immediately when his exacta keying Maryfield over the field in the Filly & Mare Sprint, guaranteeing a positive ROI for the meeting.
_______________________________________________
Race 3 - Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint:
$1 Trifecta
12 with 3,5,6,8 with ALL = $48
_______________________________________________
Race 4 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf:
$0.10 Superfecta
2,9,11 with 2,8,9,11 with 2,3,7,8,9,11 with ALL = $32.40

$5 Win Place Show
11
_______________________________________________
Race 5 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies:
$2 Exacta
5, 11 with ALL = $48
_______________________________________________
Race 6 - Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf:
$25 Win Place
10
_______________________________________________
Race 7 - Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic:
$15 Exacta
6 with 1,3

$10 Exacta
1,3 with 6

Good luck from all of us at the Dispatch on Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Day!

Mersad Metanovic’s longshot plays

Race 3 - Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint: #14 La Tee (30-1)
Race 4 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: #9 Renda (10-1)
Race 5 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies: #7 Dave’s Revenge (30-1)
Race 6 - Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf: #9 Folk Opera (10-1)
Race 7 - Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic: #3 Cocoa Beach (8-1)

Best of luck