Well, after having spent seven hours at LAX awaiting a flight home, I had plenty of time to digest one of the craziest items of Breeders’ Cup Saturday: John Murtagh’s ride on Soldier of Fortune.
Red Rock Canyon was entered as a rabbit, pure and simple. If you weren’t sure, just check out his running lines from the past performances. The comments are obvious…
“Clear leader to 2 1/2 furlongs out as Ballydoyle pacesetter…”
“Led as pacesetter for ‘Duke’…” (this one appeared four races in a row)
All year, that has been Red Rock Canyon’s goal. He’s a decent horse, but he’s never won a race, and has been beaten more than 100 lengths in six starts this year (approximate as he was so far back in the Arc, the chart simply registers as “distanced”), all as a breakneck pacesetter.
Jockey Colm O’Donoghue did his job in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Here are the fractions for the race along with the inter-race fractions:
2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf
First quarter: 24.1
Second quarter: 47.0 (22.4)
Third quarter: 1:10.1 (23.1)
Fourth quarter: 1:33.4 (23.3)
Fifth quarter: 1:58.3 (24.4)
Sixth quarter: 2:23.2 (24.4)
The final time was a Breeders’ Cup Turf record, smashing the old record by a half-second, set by Chief Bearhart in the 1997 Turf.
Looking at the fourth and fifth quarters, compare them to other Cup races from this year. Goldikova won the Mile which finished with the following fractions and inter-race numbers:
2008 Breeders’ Cup Mile
First quarter: 23.0
Second quarter: 46.2 (23.2)
Third quarter: 1:10 (23.3)
Fourth quarter: 1:33.2 (23.2)
Forever Together’s Filly & Mare Turf win was incredibly different as Frankie Dettori attempted to slow the pace on Folk Opera in an effort similar to her last win at Woodbine.
2008 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
First quarter: 25.2
Second quarter: 50.0 (24.3)
Third quarter: 1:14.3 (24.3)
Fourth quarter: 1:38.0 (23.2)
Fifth quarter: 2:01.2 (23.2)
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf finished their miles in 1:34.2 and 1:35 respectively, so to see Red Rock Canyon going in an incredible 1:33.2, he clearly did what was planned.
So why was John Murtagh sitting so close to his intended target? I don’t know and I don’t understand. But this much is clear: The chances of 8-5 favorite Soldier of Fortune winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf were dramatically altered as a result of Murtagh’s decision to track his obvious pacesetter. PC












